The Election Prediction

11/02/04

I made my prediction a few weeks ago and I see no reason to change it. Bush by a large margin. I think about 54-45%. Nader and others will get somewhere near 1%. I think that the Osama Bin Laden tape showing him wearing a virtual Kerry/Edwards Election Pin may, as Dick Morris says, have sealed Kerry's fate. When I voted this morning they were expecting up to 90% turnout in this very heavy George Bush precinct. How many people have not answered pollsters or flat out lied to them? I guess we will fing out.

The Senate will go +2 for the Democrats (Illinois and Alaska) and +6 for the Republicans (Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, South Dakota and Florida.) This gives an overall configuration of the Senate of 54-46(The independent is always really a Democrat). Not enough in itself to bust the "filibuster" but a better starting point.

The House will stay comfortably in the Republicans hands.

I think and hope that there will be a much larger percentage that this in the presidential race. I am so tired of the polls showing a tie. I have recently seen and have long suspected that these polls were biased. I will see when this is over if I have been living on misplaced hope or if I was correct. It's been a long day already--In line at about 6AM. I don't expect that the results will be in very early. Then again, I can hope.